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GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026?

Total volume:
$197,104
Volume 24h:
$2,186N/A
Liquidity:
$8,958
47%
Open interest:
$64,128
0%

Above $12.47

 - Kalshi

Above $12.47 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $12.47 on Dec 31?

97%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 97% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 5% 68 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $12.47

Trade
97%
Yes 99¢No 70¢
69¢
N/A
$260
0%
0%
$245
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above $13.07

Trade
95%
Yes 95¢No 100¢
95¢
N/A
$1,642
0%
0.06%
$1,029
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above $10.37

Trade
92%
Yes 92¢No 33¢
25¢
N/A
$410
0%
0%
$276
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above $10.97

Trade
84%
Yes 85¢No 47¢
32¢
N/A
$745
0%
0.81%
$601
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above $7.37

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,239
0%
0%
$630
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

$7.00+

Trade
83%
5%
Yes 84¢No 19¢
3¢
$1,226
$30,297
2%
8%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
82.5%
Yes 92¢No 59.5¢
Avg: 51.5¢Max: 100¢
kalshi

Above $10.07

Trade
82%
Yes 100¢No 28¢
28¢
N/A
$478
0%
0%
$352
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above $10.67

Trade
81%
Yes 95¢No 40¢
35¢
N/A
$926
0%
0%
$763
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above $9.17

Trade
24%
Yes 97¢No 90¢
87¢
N/A
$613
0%
0%
$338
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

$6.50-$7.00

Trade
7%
Yes 7.9¢No 94.9¢
2.8¢
$1,217
$8,903
0%
5%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

$6.00-$6.50

Trade
5%
1%
Yes 7.8¢No 97¢
4.8¢
$1,171
$14,958
0%
4%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

$5.50-$6.00

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 3¢No 98.7¢
1.7¢
$712
$8,430
0%
5%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

$5.00-$5.50

Trade
2%
Yes 2.6¢No 99.1¢
1.7¢
$730
$10,609
0%
6%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

$4.50-$5.00

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 99.6¢
2.6¢
$631
$13,688
0%
3%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

$4.00-$4.50

Trade
1%
Yes 2.4¢No 99.6¢
2¢
$976
$6,089
0%
6%
N/A
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

<$3.00

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99.8¢
1.8¢
$716
$6,282
0.16%
7%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

$3.00-$3.50

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1.9¢No 99.7¢
1.6¢
$644
$5,888
2%
9%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

$3.50-$4.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1.2¢No 99.5¢
0.7¢
$935
$5,799
0%
7%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above $12.77

Trade
98%
Yes 100¢No 74¢
74¢
N/A
$219
0%
0%
$216
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above $8.27

Trade
97%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,063
0%
0.57%
$626
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above $11.87

Trade
79%
Yes 100¢No 64¢
64¢
N/A
$53
0%
0%
$53
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above $9.47

Trade
50%
Yes 99¢No 100¢
99¢
N/A
$480
0%
0%
$195
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above $7.97

Trade
49%
Yes 100¢No 92¢
92¢
N/A
$5,396
0%
0%
$2,295
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above $9.77

Trade
48%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$346
0%
0%
$216
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above $8.87

Trade
47%
Yes 97¢No 100¢
97¢
N/A
$1,530
0%
0%
$885
2mo 1w 1d
active
Total markets: 25 of 50

Description

This event group tracks the rental price of NVIDIA B200 GPUs at the end of 2026 across two prediction platforms. Kalshi offers 20 binary markets with price thresholds ranging from $2.27 to $7.97 per compute hour, while Polymarket offers 11 categorical markets bracketing the Ornn B200 Index price. Both platforms measure the same underlying asset but use different market structures and data sources.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket reference different or unspecified data sources for B200 GPU rental pricing. Kalshi does not disclose its pricing source or finalization procedures, while Polymarket explicitly uses the Ornn B200 Index with documented finalization rules and a 7-day grace period.Hero tip: Identify the actual data source Kalshi uses and compare it to the Ornn Index on Dec 31, 2026. If prices diverge between sources, Polymarket's explicit sourcing from ornnai.com provides clearer resolution authority. Monitor both sources in the final week of 2026 to anticipate any settlement disputes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 20 binary markets with price thresholds from $2.27 to $7.97 per compute hour. No data source disclosed. Resolution is simple: YES if price exceeds threshold, NO otherwise. No mention of finalization delays, revisions, or grace periods.
  • Polymarket: 11 categorical bracket markets using the Ornn B200 Index from ornnai.com. Explicitly specifies finalization rules: daily data finalized once the next day's data point is published. If data is not finalized by 7 calendar days after Dec 31, 2026, resolution uses the latest available data. Revisions after finalization are ignored.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn B200 Index price for December 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the B200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the hourly compute price of NVIDIA B200 as reported by Ornn's pricing dashboard in USD. The market uses the official closing value on December 31, 2026, rounded to two decimal places. If no pricing data is available by the expiration date, all price thresholds resolve to No. Historical revisions to the underlying data made after expiration are not considered. Each price threshold independently resolves Yes if the B200 compute price exceeds that specific level by the deadline.

Frequently asked questions

The B200 GPU rental price market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi on where compute-per-hour pricing will settle by year-end 2026. This market captures real-time consensus on whether rental costs for NVIDIA's B200 accelerators will remain elevated or decline as supply scales. Traders on both venues are pricing the likelihood of specific price bands, reflecting expectations about data center demand, chip availability, and competitive dynamics in the GPU rental space. The dashboard displays current odds, trading volume across platforms, and historical price movements to help participants track shifting sentiment on B200 affordability heading into 2027.

Prediction markets like those tracked here often diverge from traditional analyst reports because they aggregate real-money bets rather than point estimates. Traders on this market are incentivized to reflect ground truth—including supply chain surprises, competitive launches, and demand shifts—faster than published research cycles allow. While equity analysts may issue quarterly updates on GPU pricing trends, prediction market odds update continuously as new information emerges. This makes them a useful cross-check: if this market's consensus differs sharply from analyst consensus, it may signal that traders have priced in developments analysts have not yet incorporated into their models.

Polymarket currently favors Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026? at 82.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $7.37 by Dec 31? at 99.0%. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price differences arise because each platform attracts distinct trader demographics, uses different market-making mechanisms, and may frame the outcome slightly differently. Polymarket and Kalshi also operate under separate regulatory regimes and liquidity pools, so arbitrage between them is imperfect. Over time, as resolution approaches and new data emerges, these prices typically converge—but temporary spreads create opportunities for traders who believe one venue is mispriced relative to the other.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once B200 rental pricing data is verifiable from credible public sources. The exact resolution hinges on whether end-of-year pricing meets the thresholds embedded in each platform's outcome definition. Traders should monitor official pricing announcements from major cloud providers and GPU rental platforms as the deadline approaches. Any ambiguity in pricing data will be adjudicated by the respective platform's resolution team based on their published rules.

Major catalysts include new GPU supply announcements, competitive chip launches from AMD or other rivals, and shifts in enterprise AI spending. Quarterly earnings calls from cloud providers often reveal rental demand and pricing power. Geopolitical developments affecting chip exports, or breakthroughs in AI efficiency that reduce per-unit compute demand, could also reshape expectations. Real-time pricing updates from rental platforms like Lambda Labs or Crusoe Energy will directly inform trader positioning. Macro factors—interest rates, tech sector valuations, and data center capex cycles—indirectly influence whether B200 rental premiums persist or erode by year-end.