TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 10:58 PM EST
Polymarket
This event group concerns the October 12th NHL game between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Minnesota Wild. Markets cover both the winner of the game and over/under goals scored, with consistent handling of postponements and cancellations across platforms.
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for October 12 at 8:00PM ET: If the Golden Knights win, the market will resolve to "Golden Knights". If the Wild win, the market will resolve to "Wild". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for October 12 at 8:00PM ET: If the Golden Knights win, the market will resolve to "Golden Knights". If the Wild win, the market will resolve to "Wild". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Predict, often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market relies on individuals wagering their own capital, incentivizing more accurate predictions. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly when public sentiment diverges from expert analysis. Sportsbooks may also incorporate factors like house bias or promotional offers, which aren't present in decentralized prediction markets. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes.
Prices on Polymarket and Predict for the Golden Knights vs. Wild game can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading activity, and liquidity, influencing price discovery. Furthermore, differing interface designs and fee structures can attract different types of traders. While both platforms address the same question, variations in market creation parameters and the timing of information updates can also contribute to price discrepancies. These differences highlight the dynamic nature of prediction markets and the impact of individual platform characteristics.