TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 9:27 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Goias and Athletic Club Sjdr, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Bets are settled based on whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential.
The event evaluates different goal-differential thresholds for determining a winning outcome in the Goias versus Athletic Club Sjdr match scheduled for October 6, 2026, in the Brasileiro Serie B league. Resolution occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty phases. Four distinct criteria define a 'Yes' resolution: Goias must win by more than 2.5 goals, Goias must win by more than 1.5 goals, Athletic Club Sjdr must win by more than 1.5 goals, or Athletic Club Sjdr must win by more than 2.5 goals. Each criterion operates independently, meaning any one of these conditions being met will resolve the relevant market to 'Yes'. The rules explicitly note that Kalshi, the platform hosting these markets, holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders, and can sometimes differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may also incorporate a margin for profit. This market, driven by real money at risk, can incorporate a wider range of information and potentially offer a more accurate assessment of the likely outcome. However, sportsbook odds are readily available for comparison and can provide a useful benchmark for evaluating the market’s pricing.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current market price indicates what traders, as a group, believe is the likelihood of a particular result in the Goias vs Athletic Club match. The volume traded provides insight into the level of conviction behind these beliefs.
This market resolves around Oct 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Goias vs Athletic Club match—specifically, the spread—will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing body of the competition. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on losing outcomes will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 7, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or unexpected weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Significant shifts in public opinion, as reflected in sports news and analysis, can also impact the market. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed traders could indicate new information or a change in outlook. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how the market evolves leading up to the match’s conclusion.