TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 11:29 PM EST
Kalshi
The event refers to a college football game between two prominent teams originally scheduled for an autumn date in the future. The outcome of interest hinges on whether weather conditions cause any postponement of the contest. If adverse weather leads to a delay, the event is considered to have occurred.
If there is any delay due to weather in the Georgia vs Alabama college football game originally scheduled for Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market aggregates the beliefs of a diverse group of traders. This can lead to differences in probabilities, particularly when there's significant public interest or disagreement about the likely outcome. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on meteorological data, this market can quickly adjust to incorporate new information and differing interpretations of that data, potentially offering a more nuanced view of the probability of a weather delay.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether a significant weather delay will occur during the Georgia-Alabama game. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the implied probability of the event happening. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and express their views, the price fluctuates, providing a real-time assessment of the market's collective expectation. The current price reflects the aggregated judgment of all participants on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether a delay of greater than 60 minutes occurs during the game due to weather conditions. The determination will rely on official game reports and widely accepted meteorological data. The platform will verify the information against these sources to determine the final outcome and settle all outstanding contracts in this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Changes in the weather forecast, particularly the projected intensity and timing of any storms near the game location, are primary drivers. Official announcements from the game organizers or the athletic conferences regarding potential contingency plans or schedule adjustments will also be influential. Unexpected news regarding stadium infrastructure or safety protocols could also move the market. Finally, any shifts in public sentiment, as reflected by media coverage or social media discussions, can contribute to price fluctuations in this market.