TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 11:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether Georgia will win its college football game against Alabama by more than 2.5 points. Currently, Kalshi gives Georgia winning by over 2.5 points a 71.0% probability. The market resolves based on the outcome of the Georgia vs Alabama college football game originally scheduled for Oct 10, 2026, as reported by the game’s official results. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market will resolve to Yes if Georgia wins by more than 20.5 points, with final resolution expected by October 11, 2026.
All markets resolve based on the official final result of the Georgia vs Alabama college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026. Each market has a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team for the market to resolve to 'Yes'. If Georgia wins by more than the specified margin listed in the market rules, that market resolves to 'Yes'; if not, it resolves to 'No'. Similarly, if Alabama wins by more than the specified margin, the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game fails to start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, determined under conditions outlined in the platform's dispute resolution procedures. The platform explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on their own analysis and to balance betting action, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own beliefs. Often, prediction markets are considered more accurate forecasters of event outcomes, as they aggregate diverse perspectives. However, sportsbook odds can be influenced by promotional offers or specific biases, leading to discrepancies with the probabilities implied by this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. As more people buy contracts for a particular spread, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price discovery process is entirely driven by supply and demand, with traders adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis of the upcoming game between Georgia and Alabama.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Georgia versus Alabama football game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing body of college football. The final point spread will be compared to the contracts traded on Kalshi to determine which contracts will pay out and at what value. Traders holding winning contracts will receive a payout based on the contract's value at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Georgia or Alabama football teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if severe weather is predicted, could also shift the market. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could impact trader sentiment. Public opinion, as reflected in polls and expert analysis, may also play a role, though this market represents independent forecasting based on trading activity.