TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 8:33 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how decisively one team might lead at halftime in an upcoming college football game. Outcomes depend solely on the point differential at the end of the first half, reflecting early game momentum and performance.
All markets resolve based exclusively on points scored during the first half of the designated game. If Georgia State wins by exceeding the specified point margin, the corresponding "Georgia St. wins by over X points" market resolves to Yes; if Arkansas State achieves its specified margin, the relevant "Arkansas St. wins by over X points" market resolves to Yes. Markets remain active if the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time. If play does not commence within this window, all markets resolve at a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the eventual game outcome.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. Examining these differences can be valuable, as prediction markets sometimes anticipate outcomes more accurately than traditional betting markets, though this isn’t always the case.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. Traders who believe Georgia St. will cover the spread will buy contracts, driving the price up, while those who believe Arkansas St. will cover will sell. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of each outcome, and the volume indicates the level of conviction behind those beliefs.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the first half spread of the Georgia St. vs Arkansas St. game is verified against credible public reporting. The final point spread will be determined by official game statistics, and the market will settle to 100 for the contract corresponding to the actual result. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout of 100 per contract, while those holding losing contracts will receive nothing.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Georgia St. or Arkansas St. would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the game, could also shift the odds. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions, or even significant betting activity in traditional sportsbooks, could all contribute to price fluctuations in this market.