TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$203,036,808
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,857,846,526
408,774
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,373
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 11:05 AM EST
Kalshi
This event focuses on the margin of victory in the same Genoa versus Fiorentina match. Different markets will resolve based on whether Genoa or Fiorentina wins by a margin greater than specified goal differences during regular time.
These markets resolve based on the goal differential if either Genoa or Fiorentina wins the match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. One market resolves if Genoa wins by more than 2.5 goals, another if Genoa wins by more than 1.5 goals, a third if Fiorentina wins by more than 1.5 goals, and the final if Fiorentina wins by more than 2.5 goals. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert opinions, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the price on Kalshi will move accordingly, potentially offering a different value than what’s available at a sportsbook. This difference can be due to varying levels of information or differing interpretations of the same information.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the spread. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means that the market price is constantly adjusting based on supply and demand, providing a real-time assessment of the expected result of the Genoa vs Fiorentina match.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Genoa vs Fiorentina match as officially recorded by sports data providers. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout of 100 cents per contract, while those holding contracts for incorrect outcomes will receive nothing. The market’s resolution is independent of any individual’s opinion and relies on objective, publicly available data.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 10, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Genoa or Fiorentina would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about key personnel or changes in coaching staff could also play a role. Essentially, any information that alters perceptions of the likely outcome of the Genoa vs Fiorentina match has the potential to shift prices on Kalshi.