TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 8:59 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the performance of individual golfers competing in the 2026 Genesis Championship, resolving based on whether each specified player finishes among the top 20 participants in the tournament.
Each market resolves to Yes if the specified golfer finishes in the top 20 positions (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Championship. If a golfer forfeits, withdraws, or does not participate, the market resolves to Fair Market Price if the withdrawal occurs before teeing off, and to No if after teeing off. These rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistent resolution criteria for each participant's performance outcome.
Frequently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market reflects the aggregated predictions of informed traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, analytical approaches, or simply varying levels of public enthusiasm for a particular outcome. It’s common to see this market incorporate information more quickly than traditional odds, especially as new data emerges leading up to the tournament. Analyzing these differences can be valuable for identifying potential opportunities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders bid and ask for contracts representing each golfer finishing in the top 20. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts for a particular golfer, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability of success. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and generate a forecast.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final leaderboard for the Genesis Championship is verifiable from credible public reporting. The golfers who officially finish within the top 20 will determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the official tournament results released by the PGA Tour. Any ties for 20th place will be included in the resolution, meaning more than 20 golfers could satisfy a winning contract.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Player form leading up to the tournament, including recent performance and any reported injuries, will be closely watched. Weather conditions during the event can also play a crucial role, potentially favoring certain playing styles. Unexpected withdrawals of key players would also cause substantial shifts in the odds. Finally, any news or analysis regarding course conditions or strategic advantages could influence traders’ assessments and move the market accordingly.