TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:01 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on determining whether one team will dominate the final quarter of a football game by a specific margin. Each market specifies a different point differential threshold that must be achieved solely in the last quarter of play, without considering overtime periods.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the 4th Quarter of the designated Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026, excluding any overtime periods. Each market has a specific point differential threshold that determines resolution: if the Green Bay Packers win by more than a set number of points (ranging from 1.5 to 10.5), the corresponding market resolves to Yes; conversely, if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win by more than a set number of points (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5), that specific market resolves to Yes. The thresholds vary incrementally, allowing participants to assess the likelihood of varying degrees of dominance in the final quarter. No points scored before or during overtime affect these outcomes. The markets are independent, meaning each threshold is evaluated separately, and only the exact differential conditions outlined in each rule determine resolution.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd,' potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and to balance betting action, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. However, both aim to accurately predict the outcome, and comparing them can offer a broader perspective on the likely result of the Packers-Buccaneers 4th quarter spread.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of a specific outcome occurring – in this case, the Packers winning the fourth quarter by more than the spread. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all participants regarding the likelihood of that outcome, and is constantly updated as new trades occur.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread in the fourth quarter of the game between the Packers and Buccaneers will be used to determine whether contracts predicting the Packers winning by a certain margin will pay out. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics and verified against credible public sources, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Packers or Buccaneers would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also shift the market. Additionally, in-game performance during the first three quarters – if one team establishes a dominant lead – will heavily influence trading activity and the perceived probability of the Packers winning the fourth quarter by the specified spread.