TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 3:28 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance gap between the Green Bay Packers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers specifically during the third quarter of their scheduled game. It focuses on determining which team achieves a significant scoring advantage in that quarter, regardless of the overall game outcome.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the third quarter of the designated Pro Football game between the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Each market has a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by either team to resolve as 'Yes'. If the Green Bay Packers win the third quarter by more than the specified margin, the corresponding 'GB Packers wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Tampa Bay wins the third quarter by more than the specified margin, the relevant 'TB Buccaneers wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Markets resolve only if the game is officially played as scheduled; any postponed or canceled games result in all markets being void. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward these resolutions, with no consideration given to the final full-game result or points from other quarters.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamics of supply and demand within the prediction market. It's common to see this market incorporate information and adjust more rapidly to news than traditional betting lines, potentially offering a different perspective on the likely result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 3rd quarter spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific spread occurring. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the market collectively believes is the most likely outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated predictions of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the potential point difference.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread at the end of the third quarter of the Packers-Buccaneers game will determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted source, ensuring an objective and verifiable result. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those with incorrect predictions will not.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. News regarding key player injuries to either the Packers or the Buccaneers would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable to one team’s style of play, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team morale might also play a role. Finally, even significant shifts in public sentiment, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, can influence how traders position themselves in this market.