TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:01 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether one team will achieve a specific point differential advantage over the opposing team during the second half of a football game, including any overtime periods. The outcomes depend solely on the points scored after halftime.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in favor of either the Green Bay Packers or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half of the game, including any overtime periods. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning margin: markets 1-8 resolve if the Packers win by more than the stated margin (13.5 to 2.5 points), while markets 9-15 resolve if the Buccaneers win by more than the stated margin (2.5 to 10.5 points). Only points scored in the second half and overtime count toward the resolution. If the game is not played as scheduled, all markets are void.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd,' potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals freely trading contracts based on their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe the Packers will perform better than the spread suggests, the price will move accordingly, potentially diverging from sportsbook lines. It’s common to see prediction markets incorporate information and perspectives not immediately reflected in sportsbook offerings, offering a unique perspective on the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second half of the Packers-Buccaneers game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread being the correct outcome, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of the expected result. The current price indicates what traders are collectively willing to pay or receive for a contract tied to a specific spread.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread of the second half of the Packers-Buccaneers game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the NFL, ensuring an objective and verifiable outcome. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout of $1 per contract, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will receive $0. The market’s resolution is independent of any pre-game predictions or opinions.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Packers or the Buccaneers would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected pre-game reports about team strategies or player matchups could also play a role. Even significant betting activity in traditional sportsbooks could influence traders on Kalshi, as they attempt to anticipate the overall market perception of the game’s likely outcome.