TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.2b

24H VOL:

$192,072,993

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,842,388,377

408,027

Markets across

40,419

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,369

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Galatasaray SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Galatasaray SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK?

Volume:
$1,166,325

Galatasaray

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 9, 2026

Closed: Oct 9, 3:04 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Galatasaray

View
100%
22%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$523,686
N/A
N/A
$214,620
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Galatasaray SK

View
100%
23%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$196,796
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$204,844
N/A
N/A
$97,034
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Galatasaray SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK)

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,180
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Kasimpasa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$174,950
N/A
N/A
$80,782
Settled
No
polymarket

Kasımpaşa SK

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39,870
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks whether Galatasaray SK will win their Super Lig soccer match against Kasımpaşa SK on October 9, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of Galatasaray winning is 100.0%, aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket. The official match result reported on https://tff.org/ will serve as the resolution source for this market. Keep an eye on the official schedule release from the Turkish Football Federation, as any changes to the October 9, 2026 match date could impact the event window and resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Cancellation handling differs between platforms. Polymarket specifies a 'No' resolution for win/loss and 'Yes' for draw markets upon cancellation, while Kalshi does not explicitly address this scenario.Hero tip: Be aware that Polymarket's markets will resolve to 'No' for win/loss and 'Yes' for draw if the game is canceled, while Kalshi's markets may remain open or resolve ambiguously in that scenario. Consider focusing on Polymarket if you believe cancellation is a significant risk.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No" (for win/loss markets) or "Yes" (for draw market). Source: Polymarket market descriptions.
  • Kalshi: Kalshi markets implicitly rely on the game being played to determine a winner or draw, with no explicit mention of cancellation handling. Source: Kalshi market descriptions.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Süper Lig game, scheduled for Friday, October 9, 2026 between Galatasaray SK and Kasımpaşa SK.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the full-time result of the Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa professional Super Lig soccer match originally scheduled for October 9, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. Three possible outcomes are considered: Galatasaray win, Kasimpasa win, or a tie. If the match ends with either team winning within regular time, the respective market resolves to Yes. If the match concludes in a tie after regular time, the Tie market resolves to Yes. Should the game be canceled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the platform's rules. The platform explicitly states it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those displayed for this market, often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ that can differ from traditional sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set initial odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while prediction markets allow anyone to trade on their beliefs. This can lead to prediction markets incorporating information not immediately factored into sportsbook odds, such as insider knowledge or subtle shifts in public perception. The difference between the two can also depend on the level of liquidity; this market currently has volume of $1,166,325.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi can arise due to variations in trader demographics, market liquidity, and differing fee structures. Polymarket may attract a different class of traders than Kalshi, leading to distinct risk assessments and, consequently, price variations. Furthermore, the volume of trading on each platform – currently $1,166,325 overall – influences price discovery; lower volume can result in greater price sensitivity. These factors contribute to the observed differences in the probabilities offered for the Galatasaray vs. Kasımpaşa match.