TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 9:50 AM EST
Kalshi
Two baseball teams compete in a match where the combined number of runs scored determines the outcome. Bettors predict whether the total runs will exceed certain thresholds, reflecting expectations about the game's offensive pace and scoring intensity.
All markets resolve based on the total runs scored by both the Fukuoka Hawks and Yokohama DeNA BayStars in their NPB game scheduled for October 24, 2026, at 5:30 AM EDT. Each market has a specific run threshold (5.5, 7.5, 9.5, or 11.5 runs) that must be exceeded for the market to resolve to Yes. The outcome depends solely on the cumulative runs scored by both teams, regardless of which team scores more. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the Governing League, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can often be more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as the event approaches. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to profit from public perception, whereas this market aggregates the diverse opinions of many traders. However, initial sportsbook lines often influence early trading in this market. Discrepancies can arise due to differing risk assessments and the incentives of each type of participant. It’s useful to compare the two to identify potential value in either venue.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different total run outcomes, and the price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a specific outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market is constantly updating its forecast as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final total runs scored in the Fukuoka Hawks versus Yokohama DeNA BayStars game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official game statistics will be used to determine the winning contract. The total runs scored, including those from both teams, will be compared to the different contract ranges offered in this market to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution process aims for objectivity and transparency, relying on publicly available data.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or changes to the starting lineups for either the Fukuoka Hawks or Yokohama DeNA BayStars would likely cause movement. Weather forecasts, particularly if there's a chance of rain that could affect scoring, could also play a role. Furthermore, late-breaking news about pitching matchups or team strategies could shift expectations and impact the prices of contracts. Even general shifts in public sentiment or analysis of team performance could contribute to changes in this market.