TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 4:42 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets assess whether Frosinone or Sassuolo wins by a margin exceeding specific goal differences in their upcoming Serie A match.
Markets resolve based on the goal difference if Frosinone or Sassuolo wins the game scheduled for Oct 16, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Thresholds vary: Frosinone must win by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, while Sassuolo must win by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. If the winning margin exceeds the threshold, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Extra time and penalties are excluded from consideration.
Typically, prediction market odds, like those found on Kalshi, often reflect a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbook odds. This is because prediction markets incentivize participants to reveal their true beliefs, while sportsbooks may factor in profit margins and biases. However, sportsbook odds still represent a valuable data point for comparison. Discrepancies between the two can highlight potential value opportunities; if the market significantly differs from sportsbook lines, it may indicate that the market has identified information not yet fully priced into the sportsbook's offerings. Examining both provides a more comprehensive view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the spread in the Frosinone vs Sassuolo match. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. Traders can set their own prices, creating a dynamic market that responds to new information and changing perceptions. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants trading on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the Frosinone vs Sassuolo match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The spread will be determined by the actual point difference between the two teams at the end of the game. The market will settle based on the official result, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. Traders will then be paid out or have their funds adjusted based on whether their predictions aligned with the final spread. It's important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Frosinone or Sassuolo would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather conditions on match day could all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected news about team morale or internal conflicts could also play a role. As the match approaches, any updates from reliable sources will be closely watched by traders on Kalshi, leading to potential price fluctuations.