TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 12:12 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance gap between Fresno State and Washington State specifically within the third quarter of their scheduled college football game. It focuses solely on how much one team outscores the other during that single quarter, without considering the full game outcome.
All markets resolve based exclusively on points scored during the third quarter of play in the Fresno State vs Washington State college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when either team achieves a scoring margin exceeding the specified threshold (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points) in that quarter. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the official third-quarter result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of game timing changes.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of participants, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small number of experts, while this market aggregates insights from many individuals. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when public sentiment strongly favors a particular outcome. However, as the event approaches, this market tends to converge with sportsbook odds, incorporating similar information and analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set the price through their bids and asks. Contracts are priced between 0 and 100, representing the probability of the outcome occurring. A price of 50 suggests a 50% probability, while a price of 70 indicates a 70% probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective assessment of all traders participating in the market, and it’s constantly updated as new orders are placed. The current price is influenced by factors like recent team performance, injuries, and public perception.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official 3rd quarter spread of the Fresno State vs. Washington State game as reported by a trusted sports data provider. The final price of the contracts will reflect whether the actual spread exceeded or fell short of the market’s prediction, determining payouts for those who participated in this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries on either the Fresno State or Washington State teams would likely cause a shift in the price. Unexpected changes in coaching strategies, weather forecasts impacting the game, or even significant public betting patterns in sportsbooks could also move the market. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team morale or internal conflicts could also impact trader sentiment and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market.