TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 10:24 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the first quarter of a college football game between Fresno State and Washington State. Each market corresponds to a specific point margin threshold that must be exceeded by either team to determine the outcome.
These markets resolve based on the point differential in the first quarter of the Fresno State vs Washington State college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. For markets where Fresno State wins by a specified margin (e.g., over 10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points), the market resolves to Yes only if Fresno State achieves that margin or greater in the first quarter. Conversely, for markets where Washington State wins by a specified margin (e.g., over 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points), the market resolves to Yes only if Washington State secures that margin or greater in the first quarter. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the first quarter of play. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original scheduled start time, the markets remain active and resolve based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction markets and sportsbooks often arrive at similar probabilities, but they do so through different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds based on their internal models and aim to balance their risk, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply variations in opinion. If significant differences exist between this market and sportsbook odds, it may signal an opportunity for informed traders to exploit those discrepancies.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread in the first quarter of the Fresno State versus Washington State football game will determine the winning contracts. Specifically, the outcome will be based on the official result reported by the governing sports body, ensuring a transparent and verifiable resolution process. Traders will be able to see which contracts paid out based on this official result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. News regarding key player injuries for either Fresno State or Washington State would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team's style of play, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, any late-breaking news regarding team strategies or coaching decisions could move the market. Public sentiment, as reflected in betting trends and media coverage, can also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.