TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 05d:21h:17m
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This event tracks the outcome of a professional Bundesliga soccer match between two teams. The result is determined by the final score after the standard playing time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts. The event covers all possible outcomes of the match, including a win for either team or a draw.
The event covers all possible outcomes of the Freiburg vs Union Berlin professional Bundesliga soccer match scheduled for November 8, 2026. The market resolves based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. If Freiburg wins, the 'Freiburg' market resolves to Yes; if Union Berlin wins, the 'Union Berlin' market resolves to Yes; and if the match ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform’s rules. The event explicitly states that Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, which represents their profit margin. This market, being driven by the collective wisdom of traders, tends to be more efficient and can sometimes offer more favorable odds, especially as the event approaches. However, sportsbook odds reflect public perception and may be influenced by biases or promotional offers. Comparing the two can reveal discrepancies and potential value opportunities, but remember that both represent probabilities as seen by different groups.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Freiburg vs Union Berlin match. The price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, creating a real-time forecast. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit from correctly anticipating the event's outcome. This mechanism aims to aggregate diverse opinions into a single, predictive price.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Freiburg vs Union Berlin match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will verify the result against established sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution. It’s important to monitor the event’s progress as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to Nov 8, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Freiburg or Union Berlin would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions on match day could also shift the probabilities. Unexpected announcements about team lineups or managerial decisions could also cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could signal shifts in sentiment and drive price movements in this market.