TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 1:31 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional Bundesliga soccer match between Freiburg and Schalke, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates multiple possible outcomes of the Freiburg vs Schalke Bundesliga match scheduled for October 11, 2026, each defined by a specific goal-differential threshold for either team to win. If Freiburg wins by more than 2.5 goals, or by more than 1.5 goals, that market resolves positively. Similarly, if Schalke wins by more than 1.5 goals, or by more than 2.5 goals, that corresponding market resolves positively. All resolutions are determined solely by the final score after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. The governing rules clarify that the platform bears no official affiliation with the league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to the influence of public opinion and evolving information. Sportsbooks set their initial odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs about the outcome. As more information becomes available – such as team news or injury reports – you may see the odds on Kalshi diverge from, or converge with, sportsbook offerings. It's common to see prediction markets more accurately reflect true probabilities as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing potential outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means that the odds can change rapidly in response to new information or shifts in sentiment, offering opportunities for traders to profit from their insights.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Freiburg vs Schalke match, as officially recorded by sporting authorities. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will not. The platform will verify the outcome against established sports data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or tactical adjustments could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or referee announcements could also play a role. Furthermore, general news about team performance or managerial decisions could impact the perceived probabilities. Major upsets in other relevant matches, or even broader trends in football analysis, might also contribute to movement in this market leading up to Oct 11, 2026.