TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 2:27 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks various scoring margin outcomes for an upcoming professional Bundesliga soccer match. It focuses on determining whether specific teams achieve victories by particular goal differences. The resolution depends entirely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates multiple potential scoring margin scenarios across a single professional Bundesliga soccer match between Freiburg and Bayern Munich. Resolution occurs based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty outcomes. Four distinct criteria define a 'Yes' resolution: Freiburg winning by more than 2.5 goals, Freiburg winning by more than 1.5 goals, Bayern Munich winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Bayern Munich winning by more than 2.5 goals. All markets share identical secondary disclaimers regarding the unaffiliated status of Kalshi with the governing league and acknowledge the ownership of all related trademarks, logos, and brand names by their respective parties. The event exclusively considers regular-time results, rendering extra time and penalty shootouts irrelevant to any resolution determination.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the teams' strengths. If you observe a significant difference between the odds on Kalshi and those offered by sportsbooks, it could indicate an opportunity for value betting, depending on your own assessment of the Freiburg vs Bayern Munich match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence price movements, creating a dynamic environment where prices adjust based on supply and demand. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Freiburg vs Bayern Munich match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final scoreline of the game, as reported by official sources. The market will determine which outcome – Freiburg winning by a certain margin, Bayern Munich winning, or a draw – aligns with the verified result. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market leading up to Oct 25, 2026. News regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Freiburg or Bayern Munich would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also shift market sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team lineups or managerial decisions could trigger rapid price movements. Any information perceived as altering the probability of a specific outcome in the Freiburg vs Bayern Munich match will likely be reflected in the market price.