TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 1:31 PM EST
Kalshi
This market centers on the outcome of a professional Bundesliga soccer match between Frankfurt and Hamburg scheduled for November 1, 2026. It allows participants to speculate on whether Frankfurt, Hamburg, or neither (a tie) will win the match within regular time. The resolution depends solely on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event determines the winner of the Frankfurt vs. Hamburg professional Bundesliga soccer match scheduled for November 1, 2026, based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Three possible outcomes are considered: Frankfurt win, Hamburg win, or a tie. If the match ends in a tie after regular time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the markets will resolve to a fair price following the platform's guidelines. The markets operate independently of official league affiliations, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. This can lead to prediction market prices being more accurate, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, sportsbook odds may move in response to significant news or large bets, potentially creating temporary discrepancies with this market. It's useful to compare both to gain a comprehensive view of expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of different outcomes in the Frankfurt vs Hamburg match. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the likelihood of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence and interest in each possible result. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by the official result of the Frankfurt vs Hamburg match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will verify the final score and declare the winning outcome based on this official data. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on losing outcomes will forfeit their investment. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 1, 2026. Key player injuries or suspensions for either Frankfurt or Hamburg would likely cause price shifts. Unexpected changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a preceding match, could also impact trader sentiment. News regarding weather conditions on match day, or any controversies surrounding the teams, could also move the market. Finally, large-volume trades by informed participants could signal shifts in expectations and trigger further price adjustments, so monitoring trading activity is crucial.