TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

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40,352

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MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

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Francis Marshall vs. Dakota Hope: Round of Victory
kalshi

What is the result of Francis Marshall vs. Dakota Hope?

Volume:
$23,603

Decision / Draw / No Contest

 - Kalshi

Decision / Draw / No Contest - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 31, 2026

Closed: Oct 31, 8:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Decision / Draw / No Contest

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,141
N/A
N/A
$2,623
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Dakota Hope to win in Round 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,288
N/A
N/A
$5,891
Settled
No
kalshi

Dakota Hope to win in Round 1

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,261
N/A
N/A
$5,561
Settled
No
kalshi

Francis Marshall to win in Round 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,109
N/A
N/A
$2,959
Settled
No
kalshi

Dakota Hope to win in Round 3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,946
N/A
N/A
$1,380
Settled
No
kalshi

Francis Marshall to win in Round 3

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,446
N/A
N/A
$1,428
Settled
No
kalshi

Francis Marshall to win in Round 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,413
N/A
N/A
$1,095
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This market focuses on predicting the exact round in which either Francis Marshall or Dakota Hope will secure a victory via knockout, technical knockout, submission, or disqualification during their scheduled UFC Fight Night bout. Outcomes also include scenarios where the fight concludes by decision, draw, or no contest across all rounds.

Kalshi

The event determines whether Francis Marshall or Dakota Hope will achieve a decisive win—via knockout (KO), technical knockout (TKO), submission, or disqualification—in any of the first three rounds of their UFC Fight Night match scheduled for October 31, 2026. If either fighter secures such a victory in Round 1, Round 2, or Round 3, the corresponding market resolves accordingly. Additionally, if the fight concludes by decision, draw, or no contest at any point, including through a technical decision, this specific market outcome is triggered regardless of round. For clarity, technical decisions are explicitly treated as decisions and do not count toward a round-specific win. These rules collectively cover all possible ways the match might conclude within the defined rounds or through non-immediate stoppage outcomes.

Frequently asked questions

Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect a more accurate forecast of future events than traditional sportsbook odds. This is because prediction markets incentivize participants to reveal their true beliefs, while sportsbooks must account for profit margins and potential biases. However, it's important to note that sportsbooks have access to different information, such as team news and injuries, and may adjust their odds accordingly. While there can be discrepancies, this market often converges with sportsbook odds as the event approaches, representing a collective assessment of the likely outcome.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of success. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, providing a real-time assessment of expectations for the Marshall vs. Hope fight. This means the odds are not set by a bookmaker, but by the collective wisdom of the traders participating in the market.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the fight between Francis Marshall and Dakota Hope, as declared by the relevant sporting authority. The market will determine which fighter won the Round of Victory, and the outcome will be based on the official record of the event. All trading will cease once the result is known and verified.

Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or unexpected announcements about the fight itself would likely cause significant movement. Public sentiment, as reflected in media coverage and social media discussions, can also play a role. Additionally, large trades on Kalshi by individual participants or groups could temporarily impact prices, although the market typically self-corrects over time. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of the fighters’ chances of winning could move this market.