TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 5:08 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Fortaleza and CR Brasil, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. These thresholds vary depending on which team wins and by how many goals.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Fortaleza or CR Brasil wins the match, with different thresholds applying to each potential winner. If Fortaleza wins by more than 2.5 goals, the first market resolves to Yes. If Fortaleza wins by more than 1.5 goals but not more than 2.5 goals, the second market resolves to Yes. If CR Brasil wins by more than 1.5 goals, the third market resolves to Yes. If CR Brasil wins by more than 2.5 goals, the fourth market resolves to Yes. All resolutions are determined after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. The markets are independent of any official league affiliations, and all trademarks referenced belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which are set by professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting patterns and perceived biases, while this market relies on individuals directly expressing their beliefs about the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources or interpretations. It's common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbooks, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts regarding the Fortaleza vs CR Brasil match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on these actions. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will become, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective assessment of the event's probability.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Fortaleza vs CR Brasil match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score will be used to determine the winning side and the extent of the spread. The resolution process relies on publicly available and independently verifiable data to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances shortly after the official outcome is confirmed. This ensures a fair and reliable settlement process for all participants.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market leading up to Oct 12, 2026. News regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or even weather conditions could all shift the perceived probabilities. Unexpected announcements about team strategy or coaching changes could also have a significant impact. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, can also drive trading volume and price fluctuations. Any information that alters the assessment of either team’s chances of winning or covering the spread has the potential to move this market.