TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 5:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the total number of goals scored in an upcoming soccer match between Fluminense and Santos. The outcome depends on whether the combined goals exceed specific thresholds. It reflects the competitive nature of the game and expectations around scoring intensity.
The event resolves based on whether the total goals scored by both Fluminense and Santos in their professional Brasileiro Serie A match exceed specified thresholds. The match must be the one originally scheduled for October 18, 2026, and only goals scored within the 90 minutes plus any stoppage time count — extra time and penalty kicks are excluded. If the total goals meet or exceed any of the thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, or 5.5), the corresponding market resolves to Yes. All markets share the same temporal and scoring conditions, ensuring consistency across thresholds. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all related trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and a profit margin, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a certain outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price of that outcome will decrease, offering potentially better value than traditional sports betting options. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before major events.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different total goal outcomes for the Fluminense vs Santos match. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd, offering a real-time assessment of the likely result. The goal is to buy low and sell high, profiting from shifts in market sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final total goals scored in the Fluminense vs Santos match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing football authorities. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct total goals will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will not. It's important to monitor official sources for the final score to understand the market's resolution.
Several factors could influence this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Fluminense or Santos would likely cause significant price movement. Changes in weather conditions, especially if they are expected to impact the style of play, could also shift the market. Furthermore, pre-match analysis from reputable sports analysts, or even unexpected lineup announcements, could all contribute to fluctuations in the price of contracts within this market.