TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$172,394,893
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,821,572,886
404,136
Markets across
40,075
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 5:04 PM EST
Kalshi
This market centers on the outcome of a professional soccer match between Fluminense and Santos. Bettors can speculate on whether either team will secure a victory or if the game will conclude in a draw within the standard 90-minute regulation time plus any added stoppage time.
The markets resolve based on the result of the Fluminense vs Santos professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer match scheduled for October 18, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. A 'Yes' outcome for the Fluminense market occurs if Fluminense wins in regulation time. Similarly, a 'Yes' for Santos occurs if Santos wins in regulation. If the match ends in a tie during regulation, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform rules. The resolution strictly considers the result within regulation time, with no account for extended play or tie-breaking procedures.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance their risk, while this market allows participants to freely trade based on their own analysis and information. This can lead to prediction market prices being more accurate, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, sportsbook odds are readily accessible and provide a useful benchmark for comparison, though they represent a different mechanism for determining probabilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Fluminense vs Santos match. The price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the event. The platform uses a decentralized mechanism, allowing traders to set the odds based on their own research and insights, rather than a fixed algorithm or pre-defined probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will reflect the official result of the Fluminense vs Santos match, as determined by the governing sporting body. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will not. The platform relies on publicly available data to determine the final result and ensure fair settlement for all participants.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or changes in coaching staff could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or even pre-match analysis from respected sports commentators could also shift the odds. Major upsets in related matches or broader trends in the league standings might also play a role. Monitoring these signals and events can help you understand potential shifts in the market's pricing and inform your trading decisions.