TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the outcome of a Brasileirão Série A match between Fluminense FC and CA Paranaense scheduled for March 15, 2026. Markets are offered across Polymarket and Kalshi, each tracking the three mutually exclusive outcomes: Fluminense win, draw, or Paranaense win, all evaluated at 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's cancellation logic is internally inconsistent: the draw market resolves YES on cancellation, but the win markets resolve NO, making it impossible for all three mutually exclusive outcomes to resolve correctly if the game is canceled. Kalshi omits cancellation guidance entirely.Hero Tip:
Before match day, confirm with Polymarket whether cancellation triggers a draw resolution (YES on draw market) or a no-contest void. On Kalshi, treat cancellation as unresolvable and avoid taking positions that depend on a cancellation outcome. Monitor CBF announcements for postponement vs. cancellation status.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three separate binary markets (Fluminense win, Draw, Paranaense win). Fluminense and Paranaense win markets resolve NO on cancellation; draw market resolves YES on cancellation. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve YES' (draw) vs. 'this market will resolve NO' (win markets).Kalshi:
Three categorical outcomes (Tie, Fluminense, Paranaense) all resolve YES if their respective outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation clause provided. Quote: 'If [outcome] wins...then the market resolves to Yes' with no mention of cancellation or postponement.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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