TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,997,338
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,395,155,069
395,664
Markets across
30,076
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 17, 7:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and crowdsourced expectations rather than institutional models alone. Traders betting on this market incorporate CDC guidance, seasonal flu patterns, and emerging epidemiological data into their positions, sometimes ahead of formal analyst updates. When public health agencies release new hospitalization projections or surveillance data, market prices typically adjust rapidly as participants reassess their positions. Comparing this market's implied probability to published forecasts from health organizations can reveal where traders see upside or downside risk relative to expert consensus.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader buy and sell orders into continuous probability quotes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders purchase shares representing "yes" or "no" outcomes, and the price of each share reflects the crowd's aggregate belief about the likelihood of the hospitalization threshold being met. As more capital flows into one side, the price adjusts automatically to rebalance the pool. This mechanism ensures tight spreads and continuous liquidity, allowing participants to enter or exit positions without waiting for a counterparty.
This market resolves around Jul 17, 2026, once week 27 of 2026 concludes and hospitalization data becomes verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing actual reported flu hospitalizations during that week against the threshold specified in the market's terms. Traders who correctly predicted whether hospitalizations would exceed or fall short of the benchmark receive their winnings, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within days of the data becoming official and publicly available.
Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before resolution. New flu variants or unexpected surges in cases would likely drive hospitalizations higher, prompting traders to reprice upward. Conversely, successful vaccination campaigns or mild seasonal patterns could reduce hospitalizations and lower market prices. CDC weekly surveillance reports and state health department announcements serve as key data points that traders monitor closely. Weather patterns, school calendars, and holiday travel behavior in early summer 2026 may also influence transmission rates. Any major public health policy changes or new antiviral availability could reshape trader expectations as well.
