TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 5:24 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the second quarter of an upcoming college football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point margin threshold that must be exceeded by either team during that quarter to determine the outcome.
These markets resolve based on the point differential achieved by either Florida or Missouri exclusively during the second quarter of their college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different point margin threshold that must be surpassed by the winning team in that quarter for the market to resolve as 'Yes.' If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, the markets will resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. Only points scored during the second quarter count toward these outcomes, emphasizing the importance of in-quarter performance over the full game result.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price in this market will move accordingly. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before major events, as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Florida-Missouri 2nd quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their beliefs align with the eventual outcome. The current top market on Kalshi is for Florida winning the 2nd quarter by over 2.5 points, though probabilities are constantly shifting with new trading activity.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the second quarter of the Florida vs. Missouri game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, as reported by a trusted sports data source. The market will then pay out to contract holders based on whether the actual spread fell within the range represented by their purchased contracts.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Florida or Missouri teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team's style of play, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could shift trader sentiment and alter the price of contracts in this market. Public perception, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, may also play a role.