TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 4:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the first quarter of a college football game between Florida and Missouri. Each market corresponds to a specific margin of victory for either team within that initial 15-minute period.
These markets resolve based on the point difference in the first quarter of the Florida vs Missouri college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. For markets where Florida wins by a specified margin (e.g., over 10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points), the market resolves to Yes only if Florida achieves that exact or greater point differential in the first quarter. Conversely, for markets where Missouri wins by a specified margin (e.g., over 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points), the market resolves to Yes only if Missouri secures that margin or more in the opening quarter. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the first quarter, disregarding the full game outcome. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, the markets remain active and resolve based on the official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific outcome thresholds.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market’s prices are determined by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Examining these differences can be valuable, as prediction markets sometimes provide a more accurate forecast of event outcomes than traditional betting markets.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread in the first quarter of the Florida versus Missouri football game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Florida or Missouri would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might prompt traders to adjust their positions. Public sentiment, as reflected in polls or media coverage, can also play a role, though this market is driven by individual assessment rather than overall opinion.