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420,493

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40,511

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4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

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Florida vs. Missouri
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Florida vs. Missouri?

Volume:
$14,269,038

Missouri

 - Kalshi

Missouri - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 3, 7:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Missouri

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,747,802
N/A
N/A
$2,316,378
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 57.5

View
100%
49%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$161,470
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 59.5

View
100%
55%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$74,852
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 45.5

View
100%
22%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$71,874
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 55.5

View
100%
43%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$34,408
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
100%
68%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$18,063
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -2.5

View
100%
71%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13,298
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -14.5

View
100%
92%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,718
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 47.5

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,813
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -5.5

View
100%
78%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,259
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 51.5

View
100%
35%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,580
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -3.5

View
100%
75%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,199
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 43.5

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -4.5

View
100%
77%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,749
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -17.5

View
100%
94%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,731
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -7.5

View
100%
84%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$841
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -16.5

View
100%
92%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$489
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -10.5

View
100%
88%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$482
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -13.5

View
100%
91%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$423
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 53.5

View
100%
38%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$364
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -6.5

View
100%
80%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$340
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Missouri O/U 23.5

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$312
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

2H O/U 27.5

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$98
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 39.5

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$83
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 49.5

View
100%
27%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$56
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 216

Intro

This market tracks the total number of 4th down conversions—over or under 0.5—in the upcoming college football game between Florida and Missouri. Currently, the consensus probability favors under 0.5 conversions at 19.0%. This aggregate view combines data from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution determined by the official results reported on https://www.ncaa.com/. Keep an eye on team offensive strategies and in-game play calling as the October 3rd game approaches, as these will heavily influence the final 4th down conversion rate.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets resolve to 'Yes' if either team wins, while Polymarket markets resolve based on specific outcomes (win, loss, tie, point differentials).Hero tip: Focus on Polymarket's markets for more nuanced trading opportunities, as Kalshi's 'either team wins' markets offer limited informational value.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to Florida or Missouri based on the game's outcome, including a 50-50 split for ties. Cancellation results in a 50-50 split. "If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50."
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if either Florida or Missouri wins. "If Missouri wins the Florida vs Missouri college football game originally scheduled for Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Florida wins the Florida vs Missouri college football game originally scheduled for Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming college football game between Florida and Missouri, scheduled for October 3 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Florida" if Florida win the game. This market will resolve to "Missouri" if Missouri win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if either Florida or Missouri wins the college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of the scheduled start time, the market remains open and resolves based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of the scheduled start, the market resolves to a fair price.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their risk, incorporating a profit margin, while this market is driven by individuals betting directly on the outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly diverges from the sportsbook’s initial assessment. It’s valuable to compare both to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the probabilities surrounding the Florida vs. Missouri game.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can differ due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity, leading to varying price discovery. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, the specific markets offered on each platform may not be identical – one might focus on the final result, while the other offers a prop bet related to the Florida vs. Missouri game. These differences in market structure and participant behavior contribute to the observed price variations, even when both are tracking the same underlying event.