TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 7:07 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Florida or Georgia in the second half of their college football matchup. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team during the second half, including any overtime periods.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second half (including overtime) of the Florida vs Georgia college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the winning team exceeds the specified point differential threshold defined in each individual market. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific point spread conditions outlined in individual markets.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines which are often set by experts. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public perception and marketing strategies into their initial odds, while this market relies on individuals directly wagering on their beliefs. Over time, the prices in this market tend to converge with sportsbook odds as more information becomes available and the event draws nearer. However, discrepancies can still emerge due to differing opinions and risk assessments among market participants and oddsmakers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular spread, its price increases, reflecting growing confidence in that outcome. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants, constantly adjusting to new information and insights regarding the game’s potential outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread of the second half of the Florida vs Georgia game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Contracts predicting the actual spread will settle at 100, while those predicting a different spread will settle at 0. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and results, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the winning contracts.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Florida or Georgia teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift the market. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might cause traders to reassess their predictions. Public sentiment, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, can also contribute to price fluctuations, although this market is driven by actual wagers, not just opinions.