TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 7:21 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks which team will score the first touchdown in an upcoming college football game between Florida State and Miami (FL). It includes scenarios where either team scores first or if neither team manages to score a touchdown during the entire match, including any overtime periods.
The event determines whether Florida State or Miami (FL) scores the first touchdown in their college football game scheduled for October 17, 2026, or if no team scores a touchdown at all. All types of touchdowns—including offensive, defensive, and special teams plays—are counted, and any touchdown scored in overtime still counts toward the resolution. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the result will be based on the actual game outcome. If the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, the market will resolve to a fair price. The event explicitly states that Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into the odds. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading on their own beliefs, leading to a potentially more accurate assessment of probabilities, especially as new information emerges. While sportsbooks might initially favor one team, the prediction market can adjust rapidly based on collective insight and any breaking news surrounding the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. Each contract represents a 100-cent outcome: 100 cents if the outcome occurs (e.g., Florida St. scores first), and 0 cents if it doesn’t. The price of a contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome happening. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts for a particular team, the price increases, indicating growing confidence in their chances of scoring first. The market dynamically adjusts to incorporate new information and changing perceptions.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which team scores the first touchdown in the Florida St. vs. Miami (FL) game. The official game records will serve as the source for determining the winning outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final result of the game and their positions in this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Florida St. or Miami (FL) would likely cause a shift in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they favor one team's offensive style, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team morale could also play a role. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis from reputable sports commentators could sway market sentiment and lead to price fluctuations in this market.