TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Flames vs. Avalanche
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for April 9 at 9:00PM ET: If the Flames win, the market will resolve to "Flames". If the Avalanche win, the market will resolve to "Avalanche". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves YES if either team wins (both outcomes trigger YES), creating a logical contradiction. Polymarket correctly resolves to a specific team outcome (Flames or Avalanche) based on the game result, making Polymarket the coherent resolution framework while Kalshi's binary structure is fundamentally flawed for this matchup.Hero Tip:
Avoid betting on Kalshi's Flames vs. Avalanche market — it resolves YES regardless of outcome, making it unsuitable for directional trading. Use Polymarket's winner market instead, which properly distinguishes between Flames and Avalanche outcomes. Polymarket's over/under and spread markets are also reliable and align with standard NHL settlement practices.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's binary structure resolves YES if 'COL Avalanche wins' OR if 'CGY Flames wins', meaning both possible outcomes trigger YES. This creates a logical contradiction where the market cannot resolve NO under any realistic game scenario, making it unsuitable for directional betting on the winner.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers multiple coherent markets including a winner market that resolves to 'Flames' if Calgary wins or 'Avalanche' if Colorado wins, plus over/under totals (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) and spread markets (-1.5, -2.5) that all use consistent NHL scoring rules including overtime and shootout adjustments.
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