TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 9:01 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on the margin of victory in the Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro match, specifically whether Flamengo wins by more than certain goal margins or Atletico Mineiro wins by more than certain margins.
The market resolves based on the goal differential if Flamengo or Atletico Mineiro wins the professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer game scheduled for Oct 26, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The first two sub-markets resolve to Yes if Flamengo wins by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, respectively. The latter two sub-markets resolve to Yes if Atletico Mineiro wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, respectively. Extra time and penalty kicks are excluded from the determination of the win margin. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks often set lines to attract balanced betting, whereas this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs about the probability of each outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news that could impact the perceived likelihood of a particular result. Comparing the two can offer a broader perspective on the potential outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro match, as determined by official game statistics. The market will settle to 100 if Atletico Mineiro wins by more than 1.5 goals, and 0 otherwise. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the incorrect outcome will lose their stake.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or tactical adjustments could significantly shift the perceived probabilities. Unexpected weather conditions or controversies surrounding the match could also play a role. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and influence price movements. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how the market evolves leading up to Oct 27, 2026.