TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 4:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an upcoming women's professional soccer match between two Italian teams. The result will be determined by the final score after the standard playing time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts. Markets will reflect whether one team secures a victory or if the game concludes with an equal score.
The event resolves based on the full-time result of the Fiorentina vs Juventus Serie A Femminile match scheduled for November 2, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A victory for either Fiorentina or Juventus will resolve the respective market to Yes. If the match ends in a tie, the Tie market resolves to Yes. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will be resolved at a fair price following Kalshi’s standard procedures. The event exclusively considers regular time results, with no account for extra time or penalty shootout outcomes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to build in a profit margin, while this market is driven by traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it could indicate differing opinions on the likely result of the Fiorentina-Juventus match, or potentially an arbitrage opportunity for informed traders. It’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Fiorentina-Juventus match. The price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume provide insights into the level of confidence traders have in each potential result, and the price movements can be quite dynamic as new information emerges.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Fiorentina-Juventus match, as determined by the governing soccer authorities. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the winning contract. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Nov 2, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Fiorentina or Juventus would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also play a role. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of each outcome has the potential to shift the market prices.