TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 5:48 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Atalanta will win its upcoming Serie A soccer match against Fiorentina. Currently, Kalshi gives Atalanta a 51.0% probability of winning, while a tie is priced at 28.0%. The market will resolve based on the result of the Fiorentina vs Atalanta professional Serie A soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 29, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by the official game result. Keep a close watch on the kickoff of the match on October 29, 2026, as that marks the beginning of the event window for resolution.
The markets resolve based on the full-time result of the Fiorentina vs Atalanta Serie A match scheduled for October 29, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. A 'Yes' outcome for Fiorentina, Atalanta, or Tie markets occurs respectively if those teams win or the match ends level at the end of regulation time. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets resolve at a fair price according to platform rules. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with Lega Serie A or the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may also incorporate a margin for profit. This market, driven by traders on Kalshi, tends to more closely reflect the collective belief of informed participants. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of trading activity as new information becomes available. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster than sportsbook odds in response to breaking news.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence and activity surrounding each possible result, offering a real-time assessment of expectations for the Fiorentina vs Atalanta match.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Fiorentina vs Atalanta match, as reported by a trusted sports data source. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event outcome. Traders holding contracts for the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for incorrect outcomes will not.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 29, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team lineups, or changes in coaching strategies for either Fiorentina or Atalanta would likely cause movement. Unexpected weather conditions, or even significant pre-match commentary from analysts, could also influence trading activity. Major shifts in public sentiment, reflected in polls or media coverage, can also contribute to price fluctuations. Keep an eye on these signals to understand potential shifts in the perceived probabilities within this market.