TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Finland vs. San Marino
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Finland vs. San Marino?

Total volume:
$1,011
Volume 24h:
$439N/A
Liquidity:
$1,718
0%
Open interest:
$1,011
77%

Finland

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 15, 2026

Time left: 12d:16h:35m

Finland wins

90%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 90¢ buys you 111 shares | Odds: 90% Total Payout: $111 | Net Profit: $11 Multiplier: 1.11x | ROI: 11% High Projected APY: 2,364% 12 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Finland

Trade
90%
6%
Yes 90¢No 27¢
17¢
N/A
$907
94%
N/A
$907
1w 5d 16h
Active
polymarket

Finland

Trade
84%
Yes 93¢No 26¢
19¢
$261
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 13h
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
90%
Yes 90¢No 27¢
Avg: 18¢Max: 19¢
kalshi

San Marino

Trade
4%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$105
0%
N/A
$105
1w 5d 16h
Active
polymarket

San Marino

Trade
11%
Yes 19¢No 97¢
16¢
$1,101
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 13h
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
Avg: 8.5¢Max: 16¢
kalshi

Tie

Trade
N/A
N/A
26¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 16h
Active
polymarket

Draw (Finland vs. San Marino)

Trade
14%
Yes 24¢No 96¢
20¢
$357
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 13h
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
N/A
N/A
Avg: 23¢Max: 26¢
Total markets: 6

Description

This group resolves based on the outcome of a UEFA Nations League soccer match between Finland and San Marino scheduled for November 15, 2026. Markets ask whether Finland will win, San Marino will win, or the game will end in a draw.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket includes detailed abandonment rules, while Kalshi focuses solely on the 90-minute result, creating a discrepancy in how non-completed matches are handled.Hero tip: Be aware that Polymarket's markets are sensitive to game cancellations or delays, potentially resolving to 'No' even if a result is eventually determined. Kalshi markets are more straightforward but offer no protection against abandonment.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on Finland winning, a draw, or a specific set of abandonment rules. If the game is canceled or abandoned, it may resolve to 'No' even if a result is later awarded. "If the game is canceled, does not start by Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if Finland, San Marino, or a Tie occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No specific rules are provided for game abandonment or delays. "If Finland wins...the market resolves to Yes. If San Marino wins...the market resolves to Yes. If Tie is the result...the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Finland and San Marino, originally scheduled for Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event):

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the official result of the Finland vs San Marino UEFA Nations League soccer match scheduled for November 15, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. A 'Yes' outcome for Finland or San Marino markets occurs only if the respective team secures a full victory within regulation time. The 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes' if both teams finish with an equal score after regulation. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve at a fair price as determined per the platform’s procedures. The event explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league or its entities, and all related trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probability of various outcomes for the Finland vs. San Marino match. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms is $1,011, with $439 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows for a consensus view of expectations, aggregating predictions from different sources. Polymarket currently favors Will Finland win on 2026-11-15? at 83.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Finland wins at 90.0%. This provides a comprehensive overview of where the crowd stands on the likely result of the match.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome, influencing the price. This can lead to discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. The difference between the two can sometimes indicate where sharp money is flowing or where the public is mispricing the event.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi for the Finland vs. San Marino match can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading limits, and fee structure, all of which can influence price discovery. Furthermore, differing liquidity and trading activity on each platform can create temporary imbalances. The specific question wording, while representing the same underlying event, might also be interpreted slightly differently by traders on each venue, leading to varied probabilities. These factors contribute to the observed price differences.

This market resolves around Nov 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result of the Finland vs. San Marino match will be used to determine the winning outcome. The final score and official result, as reported by recognized sports authorities, will serve as the basis for settlement. Traders will be able to see the verified outcome and the resulting payouts on both Polymarket and Kalshi following the event’s completion.

Several signals could influence the price of this market before Nov 15, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or unexpected weather conditions could shift expectations. Significant betting activity on either Polymarket or Kalshi could also drive price movements, as traders react to perceived information advantages. Public sentiment, reflected in social media or news coverage, might also play a role, particularly if it suggests a change in the perceived likelihood of a particular outcome. These factors will all contribute to the evolving probabilities until the match concludes.