TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 11:02 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether more than 2.5 total goals will be scored in the Finland versus Albania UEFA Nations League soccer game. Currently, the “Yes” outcome – that over 2.5 goals *will* be scored – is trading at 99.0% on Kalshi. Resolution will be determined by the total goals scored during 90 minutes plus stoppage time in the match, as reported by official sources. Keep a close watch on the match itself, scheduled for October 3, 2026, as the final score will directly determine the outcome of this market.
All markets resolve based on the total number of goals scored in the Finland vs Albania UEFA Nations League soccer match scheduled for October 3, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty kicks are excluded from goal counts. A market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified threshold of goals (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, or 5.5) is exceeded. The markets are independent assessments of scoring volume, each with its own threshold for resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance their risk, incorporating a profit margin, while this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs about the probability of different total goal outcomes. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s odds are inaccurate, they can trade in a way that moves the price on Kalshi closer to their collective assessment. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before a lot of trading volume accumulates.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different total goal outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand; if more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism based on real-time sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final total goals scored in the Finland vs Albania match will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official match statistics as reported by a recognized sports data provider. It’s important to note that the resolution process focuses on verifying the event’s outcome against established data sources, ensuring a transparent and objective result for this market.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Finland or Albania national teams would likely cause price movement. Changes in weather forecasts for the match location could also impact expectations, as weather conditions can affect the style of play and scoring potential. Additionally, any late-breaking news about team formations or tactical approaches could lead to shifts in the market. Public sentiment and expert analysis, while not directly reflected in the market, can also indirectly influence trader behavior.