TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 7:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Francisco Prado will win his professional MMA fight against Ismael Bonfim. Currently, Kalshi gives Francisco Prado a 99.0% probability of winning, while Ismael Bonfim is at 1.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the Prado vs Bonfim fight, as determined by official fight results. Keep an eye on the scheduled fight date of October 10, 2026, as the market will resolve based on the winner of that contest, with resolution occurring by October 11, 2026.
If Francisco Prado wins the Prado vs Bonfim professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ismael Bonfim wins the Prado vs Bonfim professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a collective wisdom that can differ from traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs about the likelihood of each outcome. If there’s disagreement between the two, arbitrage opportunities may arise, as traders attempt to profit from the difference. It’s common to see prediction markets move more quickly to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, especially in response to breaking news or late-stage developments.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Prado vs Bonfim fight as declared by the relevant sanctioning body. The market will determine which fighter is declared the winner of the bout. It’s important to note that the resolution process relies on publicly available and verifiable information to ensure a fair and accurate outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference dynamics could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about weight class changes or potential rule adjustments could also have a significant impact. Furthermore, public analysis from MMA experts and shifts in betting lines at sportsbooks can influence the perceived probabilities, leading to increased volume and price fluctuations in this market.