TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 2:45 PM EST
Kalshi
This event focuses on the margin of victory in the same soccer match, examining whether either team will win by a specified number of goals. The result hinges on the difference in goals between the two teams at the end of regulation time.
These markets resolve based on the goal differential if Feyenoord or Alkmaar wins the match. For Feyenoord, a 'Yes' outcome occurs if they win by more than 2.5 or more than 1.5 goals. For Alkmaar, a 'Yes' outcome occurs if they win by more than 1.5 or more than 2.5 goals. All evaluations are conducted after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with extra time and penalties excluded. Each market specifies a different winning margin threshold, allowing participants to assess varying degrees of dominance in the match result.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and expert opinions, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. These differences can create opportunities for arbitrage, where traders attempt to profit from the price gap. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, and neither is guaranteed to be correct.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread in the Feyenoord vs Alkmaar match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on their own analysis, news, and expectations, leading to a dynamic and evolving price. The more traders who believe a particular spread is likely, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will climb.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread of the Feyenoord vs Alkmaar match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result announced by the governing sports authority. Traders will then be paid out or have their contracts settled based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual spread. It’s important to monitor news sources leading up to this date to stay informed of any factors that could influence the final result.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 10, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Feyenoord or Alkmaar would likely have a substantial impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about player availability, coaching changes, or even fan behavior could all contribute to price fluctuations. Monitoring sports news and analysis is crucial for understanding potential catalysts that could shift the market’s direction.