TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 7, 8:35 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Ferroviario and Botafogo, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals the winning team scores beyond their opponent within the standard match timeframe. Different thresholds define various possible outcomes.
The event resolves based on the goal differential of the Ferroviario vs Botafogo match scheduled for October 7, 2026, played under Brasileiro Serie B rules. A victory by Ferroviario of more than 2.5 goals or more than 1.5 goals, or a victory by Botafogo of more than 1.5 goals or more than 2.5 goals, each trigger a specific resolution. The match must conclude within 90 minutes plus any stoppage time; extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from consideration. The outcome is determined solely by regular-time scoring margins, with each rule defining a distinct threshold for resolution.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on statistical models and their own analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides of a bet and ensure profitability. This market, however, allows individuals to express their own beliefs, which can lead to odds that diverge from sportsbook lines, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly when there's strong public opinion or inside information not yet factored into sportsbook calculations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Ferroviario vs Botafogo match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will adjust, providing a dynamic assessment of the event's potential result. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Ferroviario vs Botafogo match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will not. The exact payout amount will depend on the price of the contract at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 8, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or changes in coaching staff for either Ferroviario or Botafogo could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions affecting the match location could also play a role. Furthermore, major shifts in public opinion, perhaps driven by expert analysis or social media discussions, could impact trading activity and move the market price. Any significant development related to the teams or the match itself has the potential to cause price fluctuations.