TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 3:12 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a soccer match between Ferroviaria and Internacional, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It reflects how bettors and analysts assess team performance and expected score differentials in competitive sports. The resolution depends entirely on the final score after regular time, excluding extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event covers four distinct outcome scenarios for the Ferroviaria vs Internacional professional Brasileiro Serie C soccer match scheduled for October 10, 2026. All resolutions are determined solely by the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded. If Ferroviaria wins by more than 2.5 goals, the first market resolves to Yes. If Ferroviaria wins by more than 1.5 but no more than 2.5 goals, the second market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Internacional wins by more than 1.5 goals, the third market resolves to Yes, and if Internacional wins by more than 2.5 goals, the fourth market resolves to Yes. Each market operates independently, and only the specific condition corresponding to the actual result will resolve to Yes, with all others resolving to No. The rules clarify that Kalshi has no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from those found at sportsbooks due to the differing incentives of participants. Sportsbooks aim to set lines that balance action on both sides and ensure a profit margin, while prediction market participants are incentivized to express their true beliefs about the likelihood of an event. This can lead to prediction markets reflecting a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ that is more accurate than traditional odds, though sportsbooks may react to the prediction market’s movement. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events influencing this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing potential outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions accordingly, driven by the collective intelligence of the traders.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Ferroviaria vs Internacional match, as determined by the governing sports organization. The final price of contracts will reflect whether the outcome predicted by the contract occurred, and contract holders will receive a payout based on that final price. Traders should monitor official sources for the definitive result of the match.
Several signals could influence the price movement of this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or tactical adjustments could significantly impact the perceived probabilities. Match previews from reputable sports analysts, unexpected weather conditions, or even significant shifts in public sentiment could also contribute to price fluctuations. Major upsets in related matches or broader sporting events might also indirectly affect trading activity and the overall assessment of the teams’ potential performance in this market.