TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 2:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a soccer match between Ferencvarosi and Torreense, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It considers different thresholds for goal differences to determine the result. The event is based on the official game scheduled for October 22, 2026, and only the regular 90 minutes plus stoppage time count toward resolution.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Ferencvarosi or Torreense wins the Europa League soccer match originally scheduled for October 22, 2026. Four distinct outcome thresholds are evaluated: Ferencvarosi winning by more than 2.5 goals, Ferencvarosi winning by more than 1.5 goals, Torreense winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Torreense winning by more than 2.5 goals. The resolution considers only the results after the standard 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time added by the referee; extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from evaluation. The event operates independently of any official league affiliations, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or public perception. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance betting action, whereas this market allows traders to freely adjust probabilities based on their own analysis. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information or interpretations of the event's likely outcome. Comparing the two can offer valuable insights into market sentiment and potential value.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information, their own analysis, and their expectations of how others will react. This dynamic process creates a constantly evolving price that aims to accurately reflect the true probability of the event's result.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Ferencvarosi vs Torreense match, specifically the spread. The official result will be used to determine which contracts will pay out and at what value. Traders should monitor official sources for the final score to understand the resolution of this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Ferencvarosi or Torreense would likely impact trading activity. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also influence traders' assessments. Unexpected announcements related to the match, such as a change in venue or referee, could also cause price fluctuations. Monitoring sports news and team updates will be crucial for understanding potential market movements.