TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.7b

24H VOL:

$99,401,033

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,177,208,320

335,484

Markets across

33,267

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,184

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

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58%

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Felix FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Crypto
polymarket
predict

Felix FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Nov 27, 2025, 12:31 PM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$842,014
Volume 24h:
$14,020
5,038%
Liquidity:
$350,267
25%
Open interest:
$29,236N/A

$5M

 - Polymarket

$5M - Polymarket

84%

+15%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

No volume data

Aug 20

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Aug 27

Vol.

$0.0

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Felix Protocol FDV above $5M one day after launch?

84%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 84¢ buys you 119 shares | Odds: 84% Total Payout: $119 | Net Profit: $19 Multiplier: 1.19x | ROI: 19% | APY: N/A Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 18

Description

This event group tracks whether Felix Protocol's token will achieve specific Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) thresholds at a defined moment: 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following token launch. The group contains 9 binary markets across two platforms, each asking if FDV will exceed a particular dollar amount ($25M, $50M, $100M, $300M, $500M, $800M, $1B, or $2B).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical FDV calculation methodology (total supply × price), identical timing (4:00 PM ET one calendar day after launch), identical launch qualification criteria (active public transferability and tradeability), and identical fallback rule (No if no launch by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET).Primary resolution logic: Most liquid price source available at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following Felix Protocol token launch

Core resolution logic:

  • Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch
  • FDV = Total Token Supply × Token Price at 4:00 PM ET on launch day + 1 calendar day
  • Market resolves Yes if FDV exceeds the threshold specified in the market title
  • Market resolves No if FDV is at or below the threshold
  • If no token launch occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, market resolves No
  • Resolution source is the most liquid price source available at the measurement time

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Launch Definition Ambiguity: If Felix Protocol launches a token but it is not immediately tradable or transferable, the launch does not qualify. Markets will not resolve until a token becomes actively, publicly transferable and tradable.
  • Price Source Liquidity Tie: If multiple price sources have equal liquidity at 4:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the most established or highest-volume exchange should be used. Platforms should pre-identify their preferred source hierarchy.
  • Token Supply Uncertainty: If total token supply is disputed or changes between launch and 4:00 PM ET on day+1, the supply figure as reported by the official Felix Protocol source at the measurement time governs the FDV calculation.
  • Deadline Miss: If Felix Protocol has not launched a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in this group resolve to No regardless of any subsequent launch.
  • Timezone Precision: All timing references are in Eastern Time (ET). 4:00 PM ET is the exact measurement moment; prices or data from 3:59 PM or 4:01 PM do not qualify.
Timing: Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day immediately following Felix Protocol's token launch, provided the token is actively, publicly transferable and tradable. If no launch occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to No on that deadline.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Felix's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Felix Protocol doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Felix's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Felix Protocol doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

The Felix FDV above ___ one day after launch? dashboard aggregates real-time odds across Polymarket and Predict, tracking whether Felix Protocol's fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within one day of its public launch. The dashboard displays consensus probability, total group volume of $827,073, and 24-hour activity of $3,422. By monitoring both platforms simultaneously, traders gain a cross-market view of how the crypto community prices Felix's immediate post-launch valuation, helping identify arbitrage opportunities and market sentiment shifts.

Prediction market odds reflect forward-looking consensus on Felix's FDV trajectory, distinct from spot price alone. While spot price captures current trading value, the market odds encode expectations about token supply, fully diluted valuation mechanics, and launch-day momentum. Polymarket currently prices the top outcome at 84.0%, suggesting moderate confidence in reaching the threshold. These odds typically diverge from simple price extrapolation because they factor in dilution, lockup schedules, and broader market conditions on launch day.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Predict may price Felix's post-launch FDV differently due to distinct user bases, liquidity depths, and risk tolerances. Polymarket shows 84.0% on its top outcome, while Predict reflects 12.0%, a spread of 72.0 percentage points. Differences arise from varying fee structures, settlement confidence, platform-specific trader demographics, and timing of large orders. Arbitrageurs exploit these gaps, gradually aligning prices toward equilibrium.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution hinges on Felix Protocol's fully diluted valuation exactly one day after its official public launch. The outcome is determined by comparing the FDV at that snapshot to the specified threshold. Traders should monitor Felix's official launch announcement and token supply data to anticipate the resolution window. Early clarity on launch timing and token mechanics will reduce uncertainty as the event approaches.

Key catalysts include Felix's official launch date announcement, token supply and vesting schedule details, exchange listing confirmations, and broader crypto market sentiment. Major partnerships or protocol feature reveals could boost demand and FDV. Conversely, regulatory headwinds, competitive launches, or delays could suppress valuation. Macro crypto conditions—Bitcoin and Ethereum price swings, altseason momentum—also influence launch-day enthusiasm. Monitor Felix's development roadmap, community growth, and pre-launch hype to gauge probability shifts.