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787,063
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FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year? Odds & Prediction Markets
78%
chance
FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?
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Intro
This market tracks whether the FDA will approve daraxonrasib, an RAS inhibitor developed by Revolution Medicines for treating RAS-mutated cancers, by the end of 2026. On Polymarket, the probability of FDA approval stands at 75.0%. Resolution will be determined by official FDA records or credible reporting of a full or conditional approval for any indication, excluding tentative approvals, approvable letters, or emergency use authorizations. Watch for FDA action on Revolution Medicines' New Drug Application or supplemental applications before the December 31, 2026 deadline.
Polymarket
Daraxonrasib is an RAS inhibitor drug developed by Revolution Medicines and currently in trial to treat RAS-mutated cancers. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants a full or conditional approval for a drug product whose active ingredient is Revolution Medicines’ daraxonrasib (including any brand name or identifier) for any use between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application The following constitute qualifying approvals: Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs The following do not constitute qualifying approvals: Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration FDA requests for additional information or studies Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only Approval only for export or for use outside the United States Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form If the listed drug is approved within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval. Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader conviction and often incorporate faster-moving information than traditional analyst reports. While Wall Street analysts may issue periodic forecasts based on clinical trial phases and regulatory timelines, prediction markets aggregate continuous updates from participants with financial skin in the game. The current market probability of 77.5% represents a dynamic consensus that can shift rapidly in response to FDA communications, trial results, or competitive developments. Comparing the two reveals whether professional analysts and market traders align on Daraxonrasib's approval odds.
On Polymarket, the Daraxonrasib approval outcome is priced as a binary contract reflecting the probability of FDA approval before Dec 31, 2026. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares representing "yes" (approval occurs) or "no" (approval does not occur), with the contract price directly indicating market-implied probability. At 77.5%, traders are pricing in a strong likelihood of approval. The price adjusts in real time based on order flow, clinical news, regulatory signals, and other catalysts, allowing participants to enter or exit positions as their conviction changes.
The market resolves on Dec 31, 2026, marking the end of the 2025 calendar year. Resolution hinges on whether the FDA has issued a formal approval decision for Daraxonrasib by that deadline. An approval can take the form of standard FDA clearance or accelerated pathways such as breakthrough designation or priority review. The outcome is binary: if the FDA grants approval before the end date, the "yes" outcome wins; if no approval has been issued by that time, the "no" outcome prevails. Official FDA records and announcements serve as the authoritative source.
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