Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Polymarket and Kalshi both resolve based on the official match outcome (win, loss, or draw) after 90 minutes plus stoppage time on March 22, 2026, with identical scope and primary resolution source.
Primary resolution logic:
Official Bundesliga statistics as recognized by the governing body or event organizers; if unavailable within 2 hours post-match, consensus of credible reporting.
Core resolution logic:
The match outcome is determined solely by the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time (no extra time or penalties).
Exactly three mutually exclusive outcomes exist: St. Pauli win, Freiburg win, or draw.
Polymarket's three binary markets (St. Pauli win, Freiburg win, draw) and Kalshi's three outcome markets resolve consistently: exactly one resolves YES, the others NO.
If the match is postponed, both platforms keep markets open until completion.
If the match is canceled with no make-up game, Polymarket's draw market resolves YES and win markets resolve NO; Kalshi's outcome markets align with the same cancellation logic.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Match Postponement: If the match is postponed beyond March 22, 2026, both platforms keep all markets open until the rescheduled match is completed and resolved.
Match Cancellation Without Make-Up: If the match is canceled entirely with no make-up game, Polymarket resolves the draw market to YES and both win markets to NO. Kalshi's outcome markets resolve consistently with this cancellation outcome.
Resolution Source Fallback: If official Bundesliga statistics are not published within 2 hours after match conclusion, both platforms use consensus of credible reporting as the secondary source.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon official publication of the final match result by Bundesliga or event organizers, or within 2 hours post-match via credible reporting consensus if official statistics are delayed.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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