TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 5:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks various margin-based outcomes for an upcoming professional soccer match between FC Köln and Union Berlin. It focuses on different goal-differential scenarios that determine the resolution of multiple related conditions. The event evaluates how decisively either team might win based on specified thresholds.
The event resolves based on the goal differential of the FC Köln vs Union Berlin professional DFB Pokal match scheduled for October 27, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (excluding extra time or penalties). Four distinct conditions are evaluated: FC Köln winning by more than 2.5 goals, FC Köln winning by more than 1.5 goals, Union Berlin winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Union Berlin winning by more than 2.5 goals. Any of these conditions, if met, will result in a resolution to 'Yes' for the corresponding market. The rules clarify that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by house biases or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines based on their models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, arbitrage opportunities may arise, as traders attempt to profit from the difference. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than traditional sportsbooks, especially as game day approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the final spread in the FC Köln vs Union Berlin match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand. As more traders participate, the price tends to converge towards a more accurate prediction of the actual outcome, reflecting collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the actual result of the FC Köln vs Union Berlin match, as reported by official sources. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which contracts settle at 100 and which settle at 0. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect spread will lose their investment.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 28, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either FC Köln or Union Berlin would likely cause price movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected news about the managers or internal team dynamics could also play a role. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi could indicate informed activity and trigger further price adjustments as traders react to new information or strategies.