TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 2:50 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between FC Groningen and AFC Ajax, scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 10:45 AM ET: This market will resolve to "FC Groningen" if FC Groningen are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "AFC Ajax" if AFC Ajax are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming match between FC Groningen and AFC Ajax, scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 10:45 AM ET: This market will resolve to "FC Groningen" if FC Groningen are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "AFC Ajax" if AFC Ajax are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the probability of either Groningen or Ajax scoring first. If a significant number of informed bettors believe a sportsbook has mispriced the event, the prediction market may show a different probability. It’s common to see prediction markets provide more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches, due to the continuous flow of information and trading activity.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in whether Groningen or Ajax will score first. As more shares are purchased for a particular outcome, the price of those shares increases, reflecting a higher implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand, with traders adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis. The current price of shares for each team indicates the market’s collective assessment of their chances.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The team that scores the first goal in the FC Groningen versus AFC Ajax match will determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on official match data and will be publicly available. Any disputes regarding the outcome will be addressed using widely accepted sources for football match results. Traders should ensure their positions are aligned with their expectations before this date.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Late-breaking news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Groningen or Ajax would likely cause price shifts. Changes in team formations or tactical approaches announced before the match could also impact trading activity. Unexpected weather conditions on match day might also play a role, potentially favoring one team’s style of play over the other. Finally, any significant news related to team morale or internal conflicts could influence traders’ perceptions and move the market.