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FC Groningen vs. AFC Ajax
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of FC Groningen vs AFC Ajax?

Volume:
$491,675

Ajax

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 18, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 12:47 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Ajax

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$209,739
N/A
N/A
$98,222
Settled
Yes
polymarket

AFC Ajax

View
100%
49%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$143,295
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Groningen

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$60,985
N/A
N/A
$30,753
Settled
No
polymarket

FC Groningen

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39,196
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,140
N/A
N/A
$19,796
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (FC Groningen vs. AFC Ajax)

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,319
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This group forecasts the outcome of a single soccer match between FC Groningen and AFC Ajax scheduled for October 18, 2026. Markets exist for each team winning and for a draw, all settled based on the result within 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Cancellation handling differs between platforms. Polymarket explicitly resolves 'No' if the game is canceled, while Kalshi lacks a defined resolution for this scenario.Hero tip: Consider the likelihood of game cancellation when trading on Kalshi, as a canceled game may lead to ambiguity or a less favorable outcome than on Polymarket.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve based on the outcome within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game, the market resolves to 'No'. "If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 'No'."
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve based on the outcome within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit mention of resolution in the event of cancellation. "If Tie is the result...then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Eredivisie game, scheduled for Sunday, October 18, 2026 between FC Groningen and AFC Ajax.

Kalshi

The event covers three possible outcomes of the Groningen vs Ajax Eredivisie soccer match scheduled for October 18, 2026: a win for Groningen, a win for Ajax, or a tie, all determined after 90 minutes plus stoppage time and excluding extra time or penalties. Each market corresponds to one of these outcomes and resolves to Yes if that specific result occurs. If the match ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. In the event the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as per the governing rules. Kalshi clarifies it has no official affiliation with the league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found for this market, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the underlying mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to ensure profitability, incorporating a margin, while prediction markets are driven by genuine user belief. This can lead to more accurate probabilities, as traders are incentivized to bet based on their best assessment. However, sportsbook odds can influence prediction market prices, and vice versa, creating a dynamic interplay. Furthermore, the volume traded on prediction markets can be significantly lower than that of sportsbooks, potentially leading to greater price volatility in this market.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. The differing prices on Polymarket and Kalshi for the FC Groningen vs. Ajax match can stem from several factors. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying expertise and information. Trading fees and platform-specific rules can also influence pricing. Additionally, the liquidity on each platform—reflected in the trading volume—plays a role; lower volume can lead to wider spreads. Finally, differing interpretations of available information about team form, injuries, and other relevant factors can contribute to the observed price discrepancies between these two venues.