TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid
Volume:
$4,409,731
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the outcome of the FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid Copa del Rey match scheduled for March 3, 2026. Markets track whether Barcelona wins, Atlético wins, or the match ends in a draw, all evaluated within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time (excluding extra time and penalties).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure contains a logical contradiction where all three possible outcomes (Barcelona win, Atletico win, draw) are programmed to resolve to Yes, making the market unresolvable. Polymarket uses three separate binary markets with consistent, mutually exclusive logic.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's market on this event due to the critical logical flaw. Use Polymarket's three separate binary markets instead, which have clear resolution paths: exactly one outcome resolves Yes and the other two resolve No based on the match result.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Market structure claims three outcomes (Barcelona win, Atletico win, Tie) but all three conditions resolve to Yes. This is logically impossible—only one outcome can occur. Key quote: 'If Barcelona wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Atletico wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates an unresolvable market.
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive logic: Barcelona Win (Yes if Barcelona wins, No otherwise), Atletico Win (Yes if Atletico wins, No otherwise), Draw (Yes if draw, No otherwise). Exactly one resolves Yes based on actual match outcome. Consistent cancellation rules: postponement keeps market open; cancellation with no makeup resolves per outcome (No for win markets, Yes for draw market).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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