TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 1:40 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether FC Augsburg will score over or under 0.5 goals in the first half of their match against FC Bayern München. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to FC Augsburg scoring over 0.5 goals in the first half. The resolution source for this market is the official Bundesliga website: https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Keep an eye on the kickoff time of the match on October 10 at 9:30 AM ET, as the first-half result will determine the outcome of this market.
More markets for the Bundesliga game, scheduled for October 10 at 9:30 AM ET.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as the event approaches. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to profit from public perception, whereas this market aggregates independent assessments. However, initial sportsbook lines can sometimes provide a useful benchmark for understanding the perceived probability of different outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly in less liquid markets or those with significant public interest.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of different outcomes. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions, and the current price reflects the aggregated view of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final result of the FC Augsburg versus FC Bayern München match will be used to determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on the official match data, including goals scored and any applicable tie-breaking rules. The platform will verify the result against established sports data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either FC Augsburg or FC Bayern München would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather conditions on match day could also influence trading activity. Unexpected news about the clubs’ ownership or major sponsorships could also create movement, though these are less directly related to the on-field performance. Overall team morale and recent match results will be closely watched by traders.